Ok, instead of just saying i think i can still compete, here is my reasoning why i think i can still compete:
These 3 (CC, Peavy, Webb) combined for 49 w, 600k, and about a 2.90 era and 1.15 whip. I didnt log all of this, especially about a month of cc's ks in the beginning...so i estimate that i logged maybe 44 wins, 550 k's, and i have no idea on the era and whip, so to aid my side of the argument i will say 3.00 and 1.15.
Now, obviously i cant expect 600ip from Morrow, Scherzer and Price. I cant expect 44 wins, 550k's, 3.00 era and 1.15 whip. But, lets be optimistic and say i get 450 ip, with 34 wins, 3.55 era, 1.25 whip and 450 k's(k's would probably be higher, 11 wins per). These numbers alone would equate to me losing 8 points in the overall standings, and none of them would have been to Lance who was right behind me. However, I still have room for bout 1.25 full time pitchers with these trades and i can rotate that spot between verlander (and hope he does better), parra, jimenez, buchholz if he plays, or anyone else i get in trades, FA pickups, etc. This would probably get me the +10 wins and definitely will get me the k's to equal last year's numbers. So, overal I think I will lose between 3 and 5 points compared to last year with my pitching.
So, i decided to take the risk that is associated with these trades (either of the 3 being moved to the bullpen, getting hurt or tired b/c of the new workload, or just not playing well like a certain clay buchholz) and get younger at pitching (traded avg age was 29, received was 25). Also, Webb post allstar break was nothing to write home about (71k's, 1.24 whip), Peavy's k/9 rate was much worse this past year and he was hurt a bit (and he still plays for the padres) and CC has thrown like 10,000 innings the past 2 years including the playoffs (or maybe just a bit 500, but i lost count). Taking everything into account, I decided that the trade off was worth the risk.
Other questions...like why did i trade my draft dollars and Chris Young? Chris Young wasnt going to start for me and I was tired of his low BA and lack of steals this year (or steal attempts). Draft dollars mean nothing to me since i would have to trade up to get someone of any value.
So, yes this is why I did it. I fully intend on competing for the title this year, but i know it will be much harder. Any why am I spilling all on my strategy? I am done with pitching trades (hamels is not available, sorry) and i am young enough for now at offense. I am hoping that overall these trades keep be competitive longer than if I did not do them.
On a more superstitious note, I can only hope they suffer the same fate that some of the other pitchers-with-high-expectations I have traded in the past 2 seasons:
Kelvim Escobar (0 ip) - in webb/peavy trade Chris Capuano (0 ip) - in sabathia trade Chris Young (7 wins) - in peavy/webb trade Aaron Harang (6 wins) - in hamels trade. Eric Bedard (helped for a bit, but last year was a bust) - in berkman trade who was in peavy/webb trade Jason Isringhausen/Takashi Saito - no longer closing, but i think steve expected as much
Come on curse! Make CC's arm fall off and Peavy get 1 run per game in support...btw if you cant tell i am bored at work.
Zach, I definitely understand the strategy, but I think your strategy of looking at last years finishing numbers is flawed (especially concerning my team). I made several late and post season acquisitions so my end of year numbers dont reflect the potential of my team.
Over the next 5 years, I think I like Webb, CC, and Peavy over Scherzer, Morrow, and Price. They're talented, but couldnt we have said the same thing about Bailey, Hughes, Wainwright, E. Santana etc last year? Webb, CC, and Peavy have done something that is increasingly rare: they've proven to be fantasy aces for more than one year in a row - there are tons of one hit wonders (or no hit wonders, pun intended) in baseball. I just think the odds of a prospect/young pitcher making the jump from the "fantasy #3 starter prospect status" (like Morrow, Scherzer, and Price) to fantasy ace is a lot less likely than the odds of a J.Santana/Webb/CC maintaining fantasy ace-dom.
Anyway, I think your 2 1/2 titles speak for themselves, so you have the "Ive won the league don't question my moves" trump card - but dont get too comfortable!
I, also, am bored at work. Excuse me, while I return to protecting the homeland.
I agree with a lot of what you say. After these trades I have weakened my pitching a lot. I could hold onto them and sell them off next year for this years crop of youngsters...or hold them for 5 years and slowly collect backups that eventually replace them. My impatience may be my downfall. But at the same time, CC could fall off with the yanks, peavy only win 10 games, etc. Its a crap shoot, and I am definitely the one at risk. But like I told you a few weeks ago, risky is fun. I would rather lose having fun and trading all year than sit back and watch cc and all them win again. I dunno...in 6 months I may be rereading my long post and saying "WTF was I doing". Hopefully not, but this year is going to be a lot of fun.
9 comments:
GTR JRoss.
Zach, or should I say Jeffery Loria, what's the deal?
Ok, instead of just saying i think i can still compete, here is my reasoning why i think i can still compete:
These 3 (CC, Peavy, Webb) combined for 49 w, 600k, and about a 2.90 era and 1.15 whip. I didnt log all of this, especially about a month of cc's ks in the beginning...so i estimate that i logged maybe 44 wins, 550 k's, and i have no idea on the era and whip, so to aid my side of the argument i will say 3.00 and 1.15.
Now, obviously i cant expect 600ip from Morrow, Scherzer and Price. I cant expect 44 wins, 550k's, 3.00 era and 1.15 whip. But, lets be optimistic and say i get 450 ip, with 34 wins, 3.55 era, 1.25 whip and 450 k's(k's would probably be higher, 11 wins per). These numbers alone would equate to me losing 8 points in the overall standings, and none of them would have been to Lance who was right behind me. However, I still have room for bout 1.25 full time pitchers with these trades and i can rotate that spot between verlander (and hope he does better), parra, jimenez, buchholz if he plays, or anyone else i get in trades, FA pickups, etc. This would probably get me the +10 wins and definitely will get me the k's to equal last year's numbers. So, overal I think I will lose between 3 and 5 points compared to last year with my pitching.
So, i decided to take the risk that is associated with these trades (either of the 3 being moved to the bullpen, getting hurt or tired b/c of the new workload, or just not playing well like a certain clay buchholz) and get younger at pitching (traded avg age was 29, received was 25). Also, Webb post allstar break was nothing to write home about (71k's, 1.24 whip), Peavy's k/9 rate was much worse this past year and he was hurt a bit (and he still plays for the padres) and CC has thrown like 10,000 innings the past 2 years including the playoffs (or maybe just a bit 500, but i lost count). Taking everything into account, I decided that the trade off was worth the risk.
Other questions...like why did i trade my draft dollars and Chris Young? Chris Young wasnt going to start for me and I was tired of his low BA and lack of steals this year (or steal attempts). Draft dollars mean nothing to me since i would have to trade up to get someone of any value.
So, yes this is why I did it. I fully intend on competing for the title this year, but i know it will be much harder. Any why am I spilling all on my strategy? I am done with pitching trades (hamels is not available, sorry) and i am young enough for now at offense. I am hoping that overall these trades keep be competitive longer than if I did not do them.
On a more superstitious note, I can only hope they suffer the same fate that some of the other pitchers-with-high-expectations I have traded in the past 2 seasons:
Kelvim Escobar (0 ip) - in webb/peavy trade
Chris Capuano (0 ip) - in sabathia trade
Chris Young (7 wins) - in peavy/webb trade
Aaron Harang (6 wins) - in hamels trade.
Eric Bedard (helped for a bit, but last year was a bust) - in berkman trade who was in peavy/webb trade
Jason Isringhausen/Takashi Saito - no longer closing, but i think steve expected as much
Come on curse! Make CC's arm fall off and Peavy get 1 run per game in support...btw if you cant tell i am bored at work.
Zach, I definitely understand the strategy, but I think your strategy of looking at last years finishing numbers is flawed (especially concerning my team). I made several late and post season acquisitions so my end of year numbers dont reflect the potential of my team.
Over the next 5 years, I think I like Webb, CC, and Peavy over Scherzer, Morrow, and Price. They're talented, but couldnt we have said the same thing about Bailey, Hughes, Wainwright, E. Santana etc last year? Webb, CC, and Peavy have done something that is increasingly rare: they've proven to be fantasy aces for more than one year in a row - there are tons of one hit wonders (or no hit wonders, pun intended) in baseball. I just think the odds of a prospect/young pitcher making the jump from the "fantasy #3 starter prospect status" (like Morrow, Scherzer, and Price) to fantasy ace is a lot less likely than the odds of a J.Santana/Webb/CC maintaining fantasy ace-dom.
Anyway, I think your 2 1/2 titles speak for themselves, so you have the "Ive won the league don't question my moves" trump card - but dont get too comfortable!
I, also, am bored at work. Excuse me, while I return to protecting the homeland.
I agree with a lot of what you say. After these trades I have weakened my pitching a lot. I could hold onto them and sell them off next year for this years crop of youngsters...or hold them for 5 years and slowly collect backups that eventually replace them. My impatience may be my downfall. But at the same time, CC could fall off with the yanks, peavy only win 10 games, etc. Its a crap shoot, and I am definitely the one at risk. But like I told you a few weeks ago, risky is fun. I would rather lose having fun and trading all year than sit back and watch cc and all them win again. I dunno...in 6 months I may be rereading my long post and saying "WTF was I doing". Hopefully not, but this year is going to be a lot of fun.
What confuses me is why you had to give up Young and draft dollars to seal the deal.
Jonathan: you need to drop a player ASAP
also, JRoss you need to confirm this trade
I confirm the trade, and drop Chris Dickerson.
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